Crypto News & Insights for March 2026 - Bitcoin and Altcoins

Domino

A rare Bitcoin bottom signal has flashed again. Swissblock notes the metric last appeared in 2023. That signal preceded a 130% rally in 2024.

The market has now spent 25 consecutive days in the "extreme high risk" zone. This is a record, surpassing the 23-day peak from 2023. Historically, such extended periods align with late-stage drawdowns or reversal points.

Michaël van de Poppe highlights the BTC supply in profit/loss chart. Price is interacting with levels that previously marked bottoms. In 2023, the shift from high to low risk triggered a powerful bullish expansion. A similar setup exists now, but follow-through is missing.

However, 2026 macro conditions differ sharply from 2023. Liquidity is contracting. Bitcoin ETFs have seen negative 90-day rolling flows, currently at -$2.06 billion. Gold ETFs are now outperforming Bitcoin funds in inflows.

PCE inflation remains sticky at 2.9-3.4%. The Fed is in no hurry to ease. Rate cut expectations are minimal. Wells Fargo confirms a March cut is unlikely, with June and September now the earliest possibilities. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee recently stated that 3% inflation is "not good enough" for premature cuts.

Deep drawdowns rarely resolve quickly. Ecoinometrics reminds that without aggressive intervention, recoveries from 50% drops take months. Historical data shows 40-50% declines typically require 9-14 months to recover.

Willy Woo warns that any relief rally to $70,000-80,000 will likely face fresh selling pressure. He notes that both spot and futures liquidity are deteriorating. Key support levels to watch are $45,000, then $30,000 under severe stress, with $16,000 only in a major regime shift.

The market remains in a fragile state. The fractal is present. The macro backdrop is not cooperating.

Domino

Tether has frozen approximately $4.2 billion in USDT over the past three years. The company cites suspicious wallet activity as the reason. Most of these freezes occurred between 2023 and 2025.

This week, Tether helped the U.S. Justice Department seize nearly $61 million in USDT. The funds were linked to "pig-butchering" scams. In these schemes, fraudsters build trust with victims before stealing their money.

In February, Tether froze about $544 million USDT at Turkey's request. Turkish authorities connected these funds to illegal online gambling and money laundering.

By the end of 2025, Tether and Circle had blacklisted roughly 5,700 wallets. These wallets held about $2.5 billion in assets. Three-quarters of them contained USDT at the time of freezing.

USDT remains the largest stablecoin in circulation. Its supply exceeds $180 billion, representing about 71% of the entire stablecoin market.

However, USDT supply has now dropped to a three-year low. February saw a decline of roughly $1.5 billion, following a $1.2 billion drop in January. Artemis Analytics analysts attribute this to large holders reducing their positions. They compare the situation to the FTX collapse in 2022.

Domino

Bitcoin dropped below $64,000 following news of coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. The escalation in the Middle East triggered a sharp sell-off in digital assets.

According to CoinGlass data, daily liquidations exceeded $445 million. Over 135,000 traders had their positions forcibly closed. Bitcoin and Ethereum felt the heaviest pressure. The broader market followed, with some assets correcting over 8%.

This decline erased recent recovery attempts. It added to the selling pressure built up over the past month. Investors are reducing risk exposure amid fears of a wider conflict.

Analysts at Seeking Alpha note that capital typically flows into safe-haven assets during such events. Gold has benefited from this dynamic. They warn that a prolonged conflict could push Bitcoin down to $53,000.

Markets are now watching for further escalation. Bitcoin acted as a real-time sentiment gauge over the weekend, initially plunging then recovering sharply. The V-shaped rebound suggests some risk appetite may return when traditional markets open.

Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, recently warned Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 this year. He cites deflationary pressures and Bitcoin's correlation with tech stocks as key risks. A close below $64,000, he argues, could open the door to a deeper slide.

His forecast has drawn criticism. Some analysts call it overly deterministic. Jason Fernandes of AdLunam argues a drop to $10,000 would require a systemic liquidity shock, which is not currently evident. McGlone later revised his downside target to around $28,000 after pushback.

Other analysts see a more moderate floor. Standard Chartered has suggested Bitcoin could dip to $50,000. On-chain models place a bear market floor near $55,000. The range of outcomes remains wide, depending on how geopolitical and macro conditions evolve.

Domino

Willy Woo expects the current bear cycle to end in Q4 2026. The CMCC Crest co-founder sees a sustained bull trend returning in Q1 or Q2 2027. This assumes no major black swan events disrupt the market.

Investor bearishness appears exhausted, according to Woo. This gives price room to consolidate sideways, possibly for a month. A bounce toward $70,000 is possible but would likely face rejection.

Woo warns of deeper downside if global conditions worsen. A drop to $30,000 is plausible. In a severe economic downturn, Bitcoin could test $16,000. These are not base case scenarios but remain possible.

Market sentiment needs three to six months to recover. Volatility will likely persist at current levels during this period. Woo sees no immediate catalyst for a sharp reversal.

Woo previously stated Bitcoin is only in the first phase of this bear cycle. He expects three distinct phases over the course of a year. This aligns with historical patterns where bear markets unfold in stages.

On-chain data supports his outlook. Long-term holders continue accumulating. Short-term speculators are being washed out. The market is resetting after the euphoria of late 2025.

Woo's framework suggests patience is required. The bottoming process takes time. The next bull run will build on a cleaner foundation. Weak hands are exiting. Strong hands are positioning for the next cycle.

Domino

Analysts at Coinbase Institutional have outlined two likely short-term scenarios for Bitcoin. Both depend on whether the price can break key levels. If Bitcoin fails to approach $82,000, a drop toward $60,000 is likely. This level represents critical support.

If Bitcoin breaks above $82,000, it could rise toward $90,000. However, this move would face frequent pullbacks due to seller pressure. Options market data shows positive gamma in the $85,000 to $90,000 range, which tends to contain upward moves.

The $60,000 support zone is equally important. Options data shows negative gamma concentrated in the $60,000 to $70,000 region. If Bitcoin loses this level, selling could accelerate rapidly. Market makers would be forced to hedge by selling more, creating a self-reinforcing downward spiral.

Coinbase advises against catching falling knives in the coming weeks. The risk of sharp price swings remains high. A breakdown below $60,000 would trigger cascading sell-offs. The drop would likely be faster than most traders expect.

Retail investors may be forced to increase selling to minimize growing losses. The crypto market remains fragile and sensitive to any news. A bounce will eventually come, but analysts cannot pinpoint when real growth will begin.

Strong catalysts to reverse the bear trend are currently absent. The market lacks momentum. Coinbase has lowered its Q1 outlook from cautiously optimistic to neutral. The risk-reward structure favors the downside.

Despite this, some analysts see brighter prospects later in 2026. Economist Timothy Peterson notes that Bitcoin has a history of positive monthly performance. He puts the odds of a price increase by December at 88%.

Coinbase's own survey data shows institutional conviction remains strong. About 70% of institutional investors believe Bitcoin is undervalued in the $85,000 to $95,000 range. Most would buy more if prices drop another 10%.

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Michael Saylor expects Bitcoin's recovery to take two to seven years. The Strategy chairman sees this as a normal market cycle, not a catastrophe. Long-term investors should view extended drawdowns as part of the process.

Bitcoin is currently down more than 45% from its all-time high. Saylor compares this to Apple's 2013 drawdown, which later became a profitable entry point. The parallel is intentional. Apple's stock eventually recovered and soared.

Saylor notes the market is maturing. Extreme volatility is slowly fading. This explains why Bitcoin failed to break beyond $126,000. The asset is transitioning from speculative frenzy to institutional stability.

Bank integration remains limited. Major banks still do not offer Bitcoin-backed loans. This leaves significant capital locked and illiquid. Saylor believes changing this practice would dramatically impact price. Lending against Bitcoin would unlock massive liquidity without selling.

On quantum risks, Saylor sees a ten-year horizon. The threat is real but distant. Banking and internet infrastructure will need updates. The crypto community will develop solutions in time.

Strategy recently acquired another $1.1 billion in Bitcoin. The company now holds 500,000 BTC. Saylor is aggressively accumulating through debt offerings. The latest $2 billion convertible note issuance was oversubscribed.

Saylor confirms Strategy will refinance debt if prices drop further. Selling Bitcoin is not on the table. The company views its holdings as treasury assets, not trading inventory. This long-term conviction separates them from speculators.

The market needs time to build trust. Bitcoin remains a young technology. Full integration as base financial infrastructure will take years. Saylor is prepared to wait.

Domino

Rising inflation is the primary enemy of risk assets right now. The PCE index jumped to near 3% in February. CPI held at 2.4%. Both remain above the Fed's target. This cools expectations for rate cuts. March cut probabilities sit at just 2.6%. High rates make bonds and savings accounts more attractive. Bitcoin, as digital gold, loses short-term appeal in this environment.

Energy prices have spiked due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. Iran disrupted a route carrying 20-30% of the world's oil. European gas prices doubled in two days. If the conflict drags on, U.S. inflation could hit 5%. The Fed would likely respond with aggressive hikes. Bitcoin would likely fall with stocks, still trading as a risk asset with a 0.55 correlation to the S&P 500.

Stock market turbulence adds to the pressure. The S&P 500 is down 2% from its peak. Tech stocks have rotated into energy and materials. Crypto has held up relatively well so far. JPMorgan sees institutional inflows continuing despite the chaos. But stagflation remains a real threat. CoinShares warns Bitcoin could fall to the $70k–$100k range in that scenario.

Forecasts vary widely. Standard Chartered cut its year-end target to $100k, with a potential dip to $50k first. Ecoinometrics notes deep drawdowns take months to recover without QE. In a recession with Fed money printing, Bitcoin could hit $170k. Bloomberg's McGlone remains bearish, recently revising his low from $10k to $28k.

The market is firmly in risk-off mode. The energy shock and sticky inflation are pressuring global equities. Bitcoin behaves as a beta asset, not a hedge, in this environment. Long-term, inflation still supports Bitcoin's store-of-value narrative. Short-term, we watch jobs data. Weak numbers would revive rate cut hopes and spark a relief bounce.

What is your take on this setup? Are we looking at a deeper correction or a final washout before the next leg up?

Domino

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Iran shut it down on February 28 after U.S. and Israeli strikes. Roughly 21% of the world's oil passes through this route. Over 150 tankers are now stalled. Traffic is minimal. Iran has threatened to attack any vessel that tries to cross.

Oil prices reacted immediately. Brent crude jumped 8-13% within days. It is now trading near $83 per barrel. This is a direct shock to the global economy. Energy costs drive inflation across every sector. Supply chains are fracturing. U.S. inflation could spike toward 5% if this persists. The last time CPI hit 5% was March 2023. The Fed responded with aggressive rate hikes. That environment crushed risk assets, including crypto.

Bitcoin reacted first while traditional markets were closed over the weekend. It dropped to $63,000 but quickly stabilized in the $66,000–$68,000 range. As of March 4, it has reclaimed $71,000. Liquidations remain modest at around $250 million, mostly long positions. This is not a crash. It is a volatile hold.

Compare this to other assets. The S&P 500 futures are down about 0.65%. Gold initially jumped 1.8% on fear but later dropped 6% as the situation evolved. Silver fell 11%. Platinum dropped 13%. Bitcoin is down only about 3% over the same period. Some analysts see this as relative strength. Michaël van de Poppe notes Bitcoin is holding its range better than traditional havens.

This is a real test for Bitcoin as a safe haven. During the June 2025 conflict, price wobbled but recovered quickly. This time, institutional flows tell a different story. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw over $1.1 billion in inflows last week. March 3 alone recorded $458 million, with BlackRock's IBIT capturing more than half. Michael Saylor's Strategy added another 3,015 BTC for $201 million. Institutions are buying the dip. They see potential Fed liquidity down the road.

The mechanism is straightforward. Higher oil prices drive inflation. Inflation delays rate cuts. The market now expects cuts later rather than sooner. Fed officials are divided. Williams still sees room for cuts if inflation cools. Schmid warns about overheating. This uncertainty keeps pressure on risk assets.

But there is a counter-narrative. Prolonged conflict often leads to fiscal stimulus and money printing. Governments spend more during war. Deficits expand. Inflation expectations rise. Bitcoin's fixed supply becomes relevant again in that context. Bitwise analysts note that elevated geopolitical risk has historically preceded above-average Bitcoin performance in following months.

For now, the Strait remains closed. Volatility will continue. Energy prices drive the near-term narrative. Wall Street opens soon. Oil futures will set the tone for the week. Bitcoin is stabilizing, not collapsing. That matters. Whether it holds depends on whether this conflict expands or de-escalates. The market is watching.

Domino

Matt Hougan has changed his mind. The Bitwise CIO previously thought mass migration to blockchain would take five to ten years. The U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran accelerated that timeline dramatically.

Over the weekend, traditional markets were closed. Crypto platforms stayed open. Hyperliquid became the center of global price discovery for oil and gold. Trading volume exceeded $11.5 billion across Saturday and Sunday. Bloomberg cited Hyperliquid's oil contracts as the most relevant pricing benchmark. That was unthinkable a year ago.

Tether Gold saw its 24-hour volume surge past $300 million at one point. Prediction markets exploded too. Polymarket and Kalshi recorded over $529 million in bets tied to the Iran strikes. Polymarket alone saw $90 million flow into its largest Iran-related contract. This was not casual speculation. It was real-time hedging and positioning.

Kalshi's Khamenei contract drew more than $50 million in volume before the leader was killed. The platform later reimbursed $2.2 million in user losses after controversy erupted. The episode exposed how morally and legally complex prediction markets can become when death is the underlying event.

Hougan sees this as a turning point. Hedge funds, banks, and large institutions cannot ignore reality anymore. They need stablecoin wallets. They need access to decentralized platforms. Trading on traditional exchanges with next-day settlement now looks completely archaic.

"For most of Sunday, on-chain finance became the center of the global financial market," Hougan observed. The weekend proved that 24/7 trading on tokenized assets is not a novelty. It is a competitive advantage.

Hougan recently noted that institutional buyers view the current dip as an opportunity, not a crisis. Bitwise clients average eight meetings before allocating. The ETF wave started two years ago. Institutions are only now ready to deploy.

This weekend's events may accelerate that process. When traditional markets close, the world keeps moving. Blockchain keeps trading. That gap will not remain unfilled for long.

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Vitalik Buterin acknowledges Ethereum's limits. The co-founder admits his blockchain cannot solve all global problems. But it can help build systems that protect financial freedom.

Buterin shared his thoughts on X. He expressed concern about growing state surveillance and corporate control. Wars are expanding. AI influence is rising. Social media has become a "warzone".

He concedes Ethereum has not delivered the real-world improvements many hoped for. The network has played only a minor role in addressing digital privacy and personal freedom issues.

Buterin compares Ethereum to other tools that have made more progress. He cites SpaceX's Starlink, which provides internet access worldwide. He mentions Signal, the encrypted messaging app. He points to community-driven initiatives like Community Notes on X.

These technologies help people communicate freely and access information. Ethereum, by contrast, remains mostly financial infrastructure. Its impact outside finance has been limited.

Buterin clarifies his vision. Ethereum cannot fix the world. That would require a form of power resembling centralized political authority. The network is a decentralized tech community, not a government.

Instead, Ethereum should be part of an ecosystem building "sheltered technologies." These are free, open-source tools. They allow people to live, work, and communicate. They help manage risks and build wealth. They enable cooperation toward shared goals.

The goal is resilience against external pressure. Ethereum provides a neutral foundation. Others build on top. The network itself does not enforce rules. It enables them.

Buterin's post reflects growing realism about blockchain's role. The technology is powerful but narrow. It secures value and executes code. It does not replace governance or community organizing.

The path forward is integration. Ethereum works alongside other tools. Starlink provides connectivity. Signal ensures private communication. Community Notes fights misinformation. Ethereum handles value.

Together, they form a stack. Each layer solves one problem. None claims to solve everything. Buterin seems comfortable with that limitation now.

Domino

Kraken has achieved a historic milestone. Its banking unit, Kraken Financial, now holds a Federal Reserve master account. This grants the crypto exchange direct access to the core U.S. payment system.

Kraken is the first digital asset firm to secure this privilege. It can now use Fedwire, the central bank's payment network, for settlements. Previously, the company relied on intermediary banks for dollar transactions. This direct access will significantly speed up operations for corporate clients and professional traders.

The Kansas City Fed approved the account for an initial one-year term. The approval includes specific limitations tailored to Kraken's business model. The company will roll out the new capabilities in phases, starting with institutional client activity.

Kraken Financial holds a Wyoming Special Purpose Depository Institution (SPDI) license. This state charter operates on a full-reserve basis. It must hold liquid assets equal to 100% of client fiat deposits at all times. The company first obtained this federal-level bank license in 2020.

This success could pave the way for Kraken's public market debut. The company has been actively expanding. Over the past year, it acquired six other firms. These include the token management platform Magna and the futures trading platform NinjaTrader.

Kraken is reportedly seeking to raise $500 million in new investment. The funding round would value the entire business at roughly $15 billion. The company filed confidentially for an IPO in late 2025.

Direct Fed access makes Kraken significantly more attractive to large institutional players. Co-CEO Arjun Sethi called the milestone the convergence of crypto infrastructure with sovereign financial rails. The company's stated goal has long been to build a trusted bridge between the crypto economy and traditional finance.

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Chris Tipper offers a fresh take on the crypto downturn. The Ainslie Wealth analyst points to China's central bank, not Fed policy, as the key driver. He argues China now dominates global liquidity flows.

The People's Bank of China injected roughly as much liquidity in 2025 as it did in 2024. Tipper expects total injections to reach $1 trillion in 2026. That is a massive wave of capital.

Here is the catch. China bans domestic investment in Bitcoin and crypto. That capital cannot flow into digital assets. Instead, it flows into gold. This explains why gold is rallying while crypto corrects.

Tipper sees this as a capital allocation shift. Investors simply choose gold more often now. Crypto ends up in a less favorable position, not because of its own flaws, but because of where liquidity is directed.

He contrasts this with the U.S.-led liquidity regime. When the U.S. drove global money flows, Bitcoin rallied. It peaked near $126,000 in October during that environment. Now China leads, and gold benefits.

This is not a decoupling from liquidity. It is a redistribution. Capital still moves. It just moves into different assets. Bitcoin suffers from being on the wrong side of that flow.

Data supports Tipper's framework. China has bought gold for 15 consecutive months through January 2026. Official reserves reached nearly $370 billion. Analysts suspect unreported purchases are much larger. Goldman Sachs estimates China bought 10-15x more gold than officially reported in recent months.

Central banks globally bought over 1,000 tonnes in both 2022 and 2023. That trend continues in 2026. This is structural demand, not speculative positioning.

The mechanism is straightforward. When China prints yuan to stimulate its economy, that money cannot buy crypto. It buys gold. Gold prices rise. Global investors notice and chase performance. Capital flows follow.

For crypto, this means patience. The liquidity is there. It is just parked elsewhere for now. When sentiment shifts or when China's liquidity eventually finds offshore channels, that capital could rotate back.

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AI models prefer Bitcoin over fiat money. The Bitcoin Policy Institute tested 36 different AI systems. Not a single one chose fiat currency as a primary store of value or payment method.

Researchers tested models from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, DeepSeek, xAI, and MiniMax. Each AI acted as an independent economic agent. They could choose any financial instrument without preset options.

Bitcoin was the top choice for long-term savings in 36% of scenarios. It was preferred for payments in 30.9% of cases. Stablecoins dominated as exchange mediums, chosen in 53.2% and 43% of scenarios respectively.

Preferences varied significantly by developer. Anthropic's models showed the strongest Bitcoin bias, choosing it in 68% of scenarios. DeepSeek followed at 51.7%. Google's models came in at 43%. xAI chose Bitcoin 39.2% of the time. MiniMax picked it 34.9%. OpenAI's models were least Bitcoin-friendly at just 25.9%.

Specific models showed distinct patterns. Claude, DeepSeek, and MiniMax leaned toward Bitcoin. GPT, Grok, and Gemini preferred stablecoins more often.

The study simulated various economic environments. Some scenarios assumed perfect information. Others included uncertainty and counterparty risk. AI behavior shifted based on context. Bitcoin consistently emerged as the preferred hedge against institutional failure.

This aligns with Changpeng Zhao's recent comments. The Binance founder argues crypto will become the primary payment rail for AI systems. Blockchain offers natural infrastructure for machine-to-machine transactions.

The implications are significant. If AI agents increasingly manage economic activity, their asset preferences matter. They may prefer Bitcoin for its fixed supply and verifiable ownership. They may avoid fiat due to inflationary debasement and centralized control.

This is not hypothetical. AI agents already execute trades, manage portfolios, and interact with DeFi protocols. The infrastructure is being built now. The study suggests these agents will gravitate toward Bitcoin as they gain autonomy.

The research raises questions about future monetary systems. If economic activity becomes increasingly automated, human preferences may matter less. Machine preferences could shape capital allocation. Those machines appear to favor Bitcoin.

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Senator Chris Murphy has accused the White House of insider trading. He claims six large Polymarket accounts made $1.2 million on bets tied to the Iran strikes. They allegedly used advance knowledge of the conflict.

The accounts bet on the contract "US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026." Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified the wallets. Most were funded within 24 hours of the attack. Some bought "Yes" shares hours before the bombs fell.

Murphy calls this a new form of political corruption. He compares it to "crack cocaine" for traders. He warns officials could manipulate events for profit. The Senator plans to introduce legislation banning "corrupt and destabilizing prediction markets".

This is not an isolated case. Israeli authorities recently charged military reservists for using classified information to bet on conflicts. In January, a trader made $400,000 betting on Venezuela's president capture hours before it happened.

Polymarket saw $529 million flow into Iran-related contracts. One account called "Magamyman" turned $87,000 into over $500,000 overnight. The first trade was placed 71 minutes before news broke.

Representative Mike Levin demands oversight. "Prediction markets cannot be a vehicle for profiting off advance knowledge of military action," he stated. He notes Donald Trump Jr. sits on Polymarket's advisory board. His firm invested millions in the platform.

Polymarket defends itself. The platform argues prediction markets harness collective wisdom. They claim to provide accurate, unbiased forecasts during fast-moving events.

Kalshi, a regulated rival, takes a different stance. CEO Tarek Mansour says they do not allow markets tied directly to death. They refunded fees on Iran-related contracts. The company recently banned two users for insider trading.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission watches closely. They lost a court battle to ban election betting but still claim oversight authority. Chairman Mike Selig says clearer guidance is coming.

New rules were proposed in 2024. They would bar regulated exchanges from listing contracts tied to war, terrorism, or assassination. The "Torres Bill" would ban federal employees from trading prediction markets entirely.

Polymarket recently removed nuclear detonation markets. The contracts drew millions in volume. Critics argue such markets create perverse incentives. One contract priced nuclear risk at 19% in 2023.

The debate intensifies. Supporters see prediction markets as information tools. Critics see gambling on death. Murphy's bill may determine which vision wins.

Domino

Bitcoin experienced a sharp drop amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. Prices fell to around $63,000 as Iranian trading platforms faced disruptions. By the morning of March 5, Bitcoin recovered some losses and now holds above $72,000 .

Experts are divided on what comes next. Optimists believe the bottom is already in. They argue the crisis may push central banks to inject more liquidity. This would support Bitcoin as a hedge. The most bullish forecasts see a move toward $93,000 if buying momentum continues .

Pessimists warn of a repeat of past bear cycles. If Bitcoin fails to hold critical support levels, it could slide to the $53,000–$60,000 range. In a worst-case scenario, some analysts see a test of $50,000 . They point to persistent sideways action and dependence on technical signals and liquidity conditions, including regional sanctions and restrictions .

Iran's role in the market is complex. The country remains a major Bitcoin miner. Its trading activity influences global supply. But direct impact is limited by international regulations and sanctions. TRM Labs reports that transaction volumes on Iranian crypto platforms have declined since the conflict began. However, the drop remains within normal fluctuation ranges .

Analysts urge caution. They advise avoiding panic, maintaining strict risk management, and holding established assets. Altcoins continue to follow Bitcoin's lead in most cases . The market waits for clearer signals, either from macro policy or a resolution to the conflict.